Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Love thy neighbour…Don’t love thy neighbour

India and its borders are layered with tenuous and complex relationships. Will it all change in 2007?


After decades of hard bargaining with its smaller neighbours, India has an uphill task in resolving its border disputes. Gazing into the new year, however, the process of building peace with its neighbours holds some promise. The most promising, ironically, seems to be the one that has endured the longest: the dispute with Pakistan. For the first time there is evidence of some imagination in negotiations and the usual planned rounds of talks could prove to be less than mundane.

Minister for External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee is likely to visit Islamabad on January 13 to invite Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf for the SAARC summit in New Delhi in April 2007—a visit that will provide an occasion for summit-level discussions on the peace process. The two foreign secretaries will meet in February, in Islamabad, to launch the fourth round of the ‘composite dialogue’. This could be followed by a visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Islamabad in the first half of 2007.

This follows the meeting between Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon and his Pakistani counterpart, Riaz Mohammad Khan, in New Delhi on November 14-15, 2006, to resume talks that had been placed on hold after the July 11 Mumbai blasts. The foreign secretaries reviewed the third round of the composite dialogue, which includes talks on eight subjects: confidence-building measures, Jammu and Kashmir, Siachen, Wullar Barrage/Tulbal Navigation Project, Sir Creek, terrorism and drug trafficking, economic and commercial cooperation, and promotion of friendly exchanges in various fields.

On the Siachen dispute (Pakistan brought a reworded proposal to accommodate India’s non-negotiable demand for authentication of troop positions of both sides), Pakistan says it is willing to authenticate troop positions provided that would not in any way endorse any Indian claims on the status of that area. However, it did not elaborate on how exactly troop positions would be authenticated and there is skepticism in Delhi whether Islamabad would be willing to mark troops’ positions on a map: a bottom-line Indian demand. Highly placed sources say gaps still remain between the two sides and an early solution is unlikely.

The Sir Creek dispute has moved a step closer to resolution. Delhi and Islamabad agreed to hold a meeting of experts on December 22-23, 2006, to decide on the coordinates for jointly surveying Sir Creek and the adjoining areas. The experts would conduct discussions on the maritime boundary. The joint survey is to be completed by February this year.

Meanwhile, Musharraf has sent out another trial balloon through an interview. Referring to the joint Indo-Pakistani administrative mechanism for J&K, he substituted his earlier calls for “self-rule” with the terms “autonomy”, “self-governance” and “joint management” of J&K with “joint supervision”. These new formulations bring Pakistan closer to India’s position. High-level sources believe these proposals have been raised by Musharraf through the media to allow him to gauge reactions within the Pakistani establishment.

The government of India has been guarded in its response. But the political parties in Kashmir, including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the National Conference (NC) and the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), have welcomed the proposals.

In Islamabad and within the prime minister’s office (PMO) in Delhi, some of the keenness on Siachen revolves around providing a suitable occasion for a summit meeting in Islamabad between Singh and Musharraf. Delhi wants a suitable breakthrough in the dialogue process; Islamabad believes the visit would itself be the breakthrough. The compromise could be an agreement on Sir Creek. Not in itself an intractable dispute, lack of movement on Siachen is likely to result in a Sir Creek accord being made the highlight of Singh’s visit to Pakistan.

Overall, there is potential for a slow, incremental progress on the dialogue, and dramatic, unexpected developments that could surprise political players in the J&K arena. Musharraf’s television diplomacy and the joint statements after the foreign secretaries’ talks last month represent the public margins of the debate. What is holding up further advance is Musharraf’s need for assurance that the proposals being discussed will be acceptable within Pakistan.

There is little political consensus within India on a final settlement with Pakistan on J&K. The UPA government has barely consulted its own coalition partners, far less opposition parties like the BJP. However, given the BJP’s history, an illogical and hostile position can’t be ruled out.

The visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao (November 20-23, 2006), meanwhile, saw some movement on the boundary issue with Beijing. While the visit did not yield any breakthrough in the 57-year-old boundary dispute, Indian apprehensions that Beijing had placed the boundary talks on the back-burner were allayed by a joint declaration at the end of the summit talks: “An early settlement of the boundary question will advance the basic interests of the two countries and shall, therefore, be pursued as a strategic objective.”

Building on the ‘Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of India-China Boundary Question’, which was signed during Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit on April 11, 2005, New Delhi and Beijing declared their intention to “complete at an early date the task of finalising an appropriate framework for a final package settlement covering all sectors of the India-China boundary”.

There are indications that China may not be happy with India’s representative, MK Narayanan. Just prior to Hu’s visit, India had proposed a meeting of the special representatives. China turned down the proposal.

Despite this, the political-level dialogue on the border issue between the special representatives will continue, alongside the meetings of the official-level joint working group, which is clarifying and confirming the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the implementation of confidence-building measures. It was agreed to start the drawn-out process of exchanging maps, indicating the respective perceptions of the alignment of the LAC.

Growing economic ties between India and China look set to dominate the relationship, perhaps more than the geopolitical dimension. Despite the call to expedite the boundary settlement, there is bound to be slow movement because of disagreement over the future of the border district of Tawang and the large Tibetan diaspora in India, including the Dalai Lama.

This negative potential was evident from the controversy triggered by Chinese envoy Sun Yaxi’s pro forma remark that Arunachal Pradesh was part of China. Indignation had to be quelled by Pranab Mukherjee, who stated in Parliament that India “unambiguously rejected the Chinese contention” and that Arunachal is an integral part of India.

Despite these hiccups, the growing trade relationship between the world’s two fastest growing economies is challenging traditional mindsets and is encouraging improved ties. China is deeply interested in Delhi’s growing ties with Washington, especially the landmark nuclear agreement. India is watching China’s relations with Pakistan and whether it will offer a similar deal to Islamabad.

As for Bangladesh, in whose birth India played midwife, it finds it easier to deal with Pakistan, a country that Bangladesh itself blames for the deaths of three million Bangladeshi freedom fighters in 1971. Thirty-five years later, India has been unable to function with the Awami League, and the ruling Bangladesh National Party (BNP). The BNP beats India with every stick it can find. Thanks to India’s hard bargaining over simple border demarcation and water sharing treaties, this is good politics in Bangladesh.

India alienated large sections of Bangla opinion by its handling of as sensitive an issue as the sharing of water. The Farakka Barrage, on the Ganga, completed in 1974, gave India control of much of the water flowing into Bangladesh. During the years the water-sharing treaty was being negotiated, Bangladesh had little choice but to accept the water released to it, which it considered too little during the dry season and too much during the monsoons. While this was a shared problem, India’s arbitrariness created enormous ill will among the 40 million farmers in Bangladesh whose livelihood depended on water flows. The water-sharing treaty was signed in 1996, but the bitterness is still being tapped by the BNP.

A border agreement in 1974 between Indira Gandhi and Mujibur Rehman left only 6.5 km of border to be demarcated, with an area of just 3,000 acresworth haggling over for a farmer, but hardly for an aspiring superpowerto be negotiated. Indeed, this little detail sums up the tenuous and troubled, but still evolving and hopeful, relations between India and Bangladesh, specifically, and largely, with others in the neighbourhood.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Myanmar

Govt embraces Myanmar junta in `national interest'

From Indian Express newspaper

SONIA TRIKHA (SHUKLA)


NOV 17, 2000: India today rolled out the red carpet for General Maung Aye, the second most powerful man in Myanmar's military regime, dismissing criticism from some quarters by citing ``national interests''. As if in response, Yangon told New Delhi it has stepped up operations against Naga insurgents and destroyed five of their camps in Myanmar.

Reflecting a new bonhomie in relations, Maung Aye, Vice Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council, was received warmly by Vice President Krishan Kant and Home Minister L.K.Advani at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Also present were Kant's wife, Suman, Minister of State for External Affairs Ajit Kumar Panja and Lt Governor of Delhi Vijai Kapoor.

``Five camps belonging to the Khaplang faction of the Naga insurgents were destroyed by the Myanmar army this year despite the army suffering casualties,'' said Advani after the ceremonial reception. ``There are some more camps and they will pursue them,'' he added.

The talks are taking place amidst protests by pro-democracy activists against having any dealings with the junta which, they say, is desperately seeking legitimacy. Asked how the Indian Government, with its stout advocacy of democracy, was engaging with the military regime, Advani said: ``We weighed all the pros and cons, but in international relations, we have to take into account our national interests.''

Later in the day, Advani called on Maung Aye at Maurya Sheraton where he is staying. The Myanmarese leader also received former Army chief V.P.Malik at the hotel.

Despite the apparent thrust on cooperation to combat insurgency in the North-East, the Indian Government is selling the Myanmar delegation's visit as an economic effort. In India since November 14, Maung Aye has already travelled to Bodh Gaya and visited the Infosys complex in Bangalore.

India is Myanmar's largest export market which accounts for 25 per cent of its total exports. Myanmar with its newly-acquired status of an ASEAN member has also been pitched as India's gateway to the South Asian economic bloc. The delegation's meeting at the CII went some way in reinforcing that view.

A strong and mostly silent Maung Aye did not take any questions. In his brief speech, he said he had ``come to promote good relations between the two countries'' and for ``opportunities to invite investment''.

His foreign minister, Win Aung, answered most of the questions. On being asked what China's sustained efforts for forging closer links with Yangon in recent months meant for ties with India, he said ``we want to be friends with everybody''. On the issue of restoring democracy to Myanmar, the foreign minister said: ``We have a plan but first we must solve our fundamental problems, and we must have development first.'' He refused to explain how restoring democracy would preclude development. His response: ``Development must come first.''

Earlier, Vice-Chairman Maung Aye said ``the two countries have traditionally had good relations and this visit would further strengthen them.'' He too did not mention China.

In the evening, the Vice-President hosted a banquet in honour of the visiting delegation. Invoking historical links between the border nations, Kant stressed the need for cooperation to combat ``international terrorism with its close links to drug trafficking, religious extremism and fundamentalism and trade in illicit arms''.

Maung Aye, on a week-long visit to India, will call on President K. R. Narayanan and Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and have meetings with External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh and other leaders.

Kashmir

Budget shows how cost of Kashmir has finally caught up with Pakistan
Author: Sonia Trikha (Shukla)
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: June 16, 2001
Economic sovereignty virtually pledged to IMF
Pakistan, it turns out, has done more than mortagage its security with a historic Rs 2 billion-cut in its defence outlay ahead of the July 14 summit. In a document signed by the Pakistan Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz and Governor of State Bank of Pakistan Ishrat Husain, it has virtually pledged the country's economic sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund. The cost of Kashmir is finally catching up with Pakistan.
Aziz, who announced yesterday that his country's ''sovereignty and credible deterrence will never be compromised'', along with Husain has signed a Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) to the IMF for approving a stand-by arrangement of SDR 465 million. Aziz writes that ''in support'' of the policies set out in MEFP, Pakistan ''requests'' IMF's executive board to approve the arrangement.
The Aziz-Husain signed document is addressed to Horst Kohler, IMF'S Managing Director. It lays outs out in micro and macro detail each move of the Pakistan economy for the next several years as designed to please the Fund's dictates. The fine print apart, it is the abject language which evokes a nation caught in the throes of financial crises and under pressure from the international lending agency to clean up its act.
How far a country is willing to commit itself is a measure of its desperation and Pakistan appears willing to make sweeping promises. In the manner of a student writing imposition in class, the document pledges ''it (Pakistan) stands ready to take any additional steps that may be necessary and will consult with the Fund on this matter in accordance with the Fund policies on such consultations'' for this purpose of loan approval.
Aziz made a virtue out of a necessity when he announced the defence cut but IMF had already dictated that. In the MEFP, Aziz records that ''adequate expoenditure control mechanisms have been put in place to ensure that the defence budget stays in place''. Aziz has also promised that the Pakistan Ministry of Defence's progressive monthly expenditures will be monitored ''closely'' and its results will be reported quarterly the Fiscal Monitoring Committee of the Ministry of Finance. There's more. Any transfers of allocations will not be permiited without Aziz's Ministry approving it.
Pakistan has raised its development spending by 0.4 per cent. It is already listed in the MEFP as doing so. According to analysts, this surrender of sovereignty is the price Pakistan is paying for not only Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif's past political corruption scandals but also for General Pervez Musharaf's current ambition of keeping the military dictatorship in power. But it is not clearly not paying off. In November last year, when this document was signed Aziz had guaranteed a GDP growth objective of 4.5 per cent. According to the Economic Survey for 2000-2001 growth was a little more than half that, 2.6 per cent.
Pakistan's foreign service debt obligations are more than $37 billion with reserves of only $1 billion. The ride will only get rougher as the IMF cracks down on Pakistan to meet its fiscal targets for securing a subsequent three-year loan. Fiscal discipline as set out in the MEFP demands a 1.3 per cent cut in budget deficit.

Bollywood

Focus: Indian Cinema: Why Bollywood is coming to Britain
Independent, The (London), Apr 30, 2000 by SONIA TRIKHA

He was just an ordinary guy, helping to run a theme park outside Paris. And then he got the phone call, the call that would change his life. It was the stuff of dreams - to take command of one of Britain's newest and most notorious tourist attractions. And now, just two months later, he cannot believe his luck. Not only does he get the job, he gets the girl. He is to meet Miss World, the most beautiful woman in the world.
It's a rags to riches story worthy of Bollywood, the Indian film industry, and it is, of course, the story of Pierre-Yves Gerbeau, the French boss of the Millennium Dome, who quit Disneyland in Paris to take over in Greenwich after its original chief executive, Jennie Page, was ousted in February.
Since then Gerbeau has been struggling to boost attendance figures. Even Easter visitor numbers have proven disappointing. But now he has come up with a publicity wheeze to wow the crowds: to bring Bollywood's Oscars to the Dome, and have Miss World, the Indian beauty queen Yukta Mookhey, host the ceremony. It brought him headlines last week, but is there any more to it than that?
For Bollywood film moguls it is a chance to enhance their profiles in a country that, outside of India, has one of their biggest target audiences. With that in mind, Britain has also become a favourite location for Indian films, particularly for song and dance routines.

There are certainly plenty of Bollywood film fans here in Britain, which, along with the United States, forms a sizeable chunk of the 25 million Indian diaspora. These are the people for whom "masala films", as the Hindi song and dance extravaganzas are popularly known, spin their fantasies. This is where 55 per cent of the Hindi movie ticket sales abroad are coming from. No wonder, then, that the Indian film industry, which produces almost 800 films a year, is willing to travel to collect the awards.
Gerbeau can rely on the Indian movie business to provide the Dome with a much needed injection of glamour. Bollywood does glamour as Hollywood did it in the Thirties. The stars are worshipped, and they behave in a manner befitting demigods. On screen the women are all plunging necklines and heaving bosoms, but there is most definitely no kissing and - heaven forbid! - no sex. Innuendo reigns, with fountains gushing forth. Mustachioed villains divide families, but fate intervenes to enable them to live happily ever after. Young love transports the hero and his blushing beloved to idyllic countryside, while music and song blast out.
The formula is so successful that the Indian film industry is now valued at pounds 5.5bn globally. Indian film exports that were about $10m in 1989- 90 climbed up to $100m in 1999. They may be somewhat optimistic, but industry projections for 2000 are targeting $250m. Film-maker Subhash Ghai is calling Indian films the "biggest cultural export after Hollywood". (His own love-triangle musical, Taal - which means rhythm - starred another former Miss World, Aishwarya Rai, and broke into the British Top 10 last year.) And the Indian government recognised Bollywood's cultural importance when it made foreign entertainment earnings tax free last year.
According to Komal Nahata, editor of an Indian cinema-industry guide, movie makers want to create the right mix of "Indian themes and western look" to sell films abroad. In essence, this is often feel-good family dramas, which reflect the relative affluence and cultural activism of its overseas audiences.
The ball was set rolling by Aditya Chopra, whose 1995 Dilwale Dulhaniya Le Jayenge (The Brave get the Bride) starred superstar Shah Rukh Khan and the doe-eyed beauty Kajol as two expatriate Indians. The film broke box-office records in India and drew in overseas audiences in droves. Ghai's next enterprise was Pardes which was set in the United States and dealt with the cultural dilemmas of non- resident Indians.
Unfailingly, an Indian film has its song sequences shot abroad, mostly in Britain and Europe. The super-successful young Turk Karan Johar's Kuch Kuch Hota Hai (Something Happened in my Heart) was shot largely in Scotland. He made the decision, he says, because he has "always loved the landscape there". British Asian audiences identified with the look of the film enough to drive out to view it in hordes. Johar's films nearly always star Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan and Kajol dressed in household- name brands such as Ralph Lauren and DKNY.

Yash Chopra is another film-maker who has opted to film in Europe as part of an attempt to attract bigger international audiences. His new film, Mohbbatein (Love Stories), starring the inevitable Shah Rukh Khan, Aishwarya Rai and also India's most popular star ever, Amitabh Bachchan, is currently being shot at Longleat, the Wiltshire residence of the Marquess of Bath. Chopra also favours foreign locations for their beauty and because "they give you more freedom in shooting away from the crowds of Indian fans back home". Little wonder the British Tourism Authority gave him an award in 1998.